The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently issued its forecast for Arizona’s monsoon season that runs from June 15th through September 30th.
The NOAA prediction shows a 39% chance of above normal precipitation for the summer, a 28% chance of below normal precipitation and a 33% chance of near normal precipitation.
While the “above normal” odds are the highest at 39%, the forecast is far from a sure thing. Long term precipitation modeling is generally just a best guess based on expected weather patterns.
The 2024 Arizona monsoon season was below average, with Phoenix experiencing its 7th driest monsoon on record. While some areas in northern and eastern Arizona received near-normal to above-normal precipitation, much of the state, particularly in central and southwest Arizona, saw significantly less rain than usual.
Flagstaff and Prescott received below normal precipitation, with Flagstaff Airport reporting 6.09 inches, which is 1.59 inches below normal.
According to the National Weather Service Flagstaff Office, “This outlook lines up with a well-known pattern: dry winters with low snowpack are often correlated with wetter monsoons. And it works the other way too—wet, snowy winters tend to be followed by drier monsoons.”
